Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb65642c9bdd92075066b29d9e248b74744cd3bdd7d9a7fee3d93f80c4bfd751a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed Yes | 0c | 65,184$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.24 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 955.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 2c | 693.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 539.32$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 479.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 7c | 443.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 394.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 293.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 57c | 238.48$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 61c | 235.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 230.05$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 223.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 216.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 51c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 200.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 59c | 198.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 47c | 198.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 13c | 162.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 34c | 155.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 42c | 145.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 67c | 143.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 143.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 56c | 136.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 136.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 17c | 135.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 132.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 123.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 64c | 112.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…6aadbacked Yes | 54c | 108.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 36c | 107.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 104$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 95.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 89.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 42c | 89.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 54c | 88.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 22c | 84.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 64c | 82.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 80.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 38c | 75.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 74.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 70.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 69.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 48c | 67.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 57c | 67.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…adf1backed Yes | 46c | 67.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 43c | 67.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 62.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 60.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 60c | 59.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed No | 51c | 56.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 55.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 44c | 53.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 50c | 53.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 48c | 51.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed Yes | 31c | 50.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 65c | 49.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 40c | 47.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 64c | 47.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 30c | 44.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 39c | 43.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 44c | 42.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 41c | 39.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 47c | 38.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 38.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 68c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 66c | 36.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes | 39c | 33.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 56c | 32.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 46c | 31.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed No | 64c | 30.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 29.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 56c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…2775backed No | 65c | 29.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 28.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…ccfcbacked Yes | 37c | 28.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 59c | 28.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 71c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 60c | 27.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 45c | 26.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 47c | 26.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 49c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 66c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 62c | 22.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 45c | 22.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 22.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 57c | 21.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…45febacked No | 70c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 58c | 21.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 52c | 21.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.