TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,878

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17be…0dc8backed Yes0c65,184$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.242119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes4c955.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.491,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes2c693.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.411,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c539.32$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes8c479.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes7c443.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.863323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes12c394.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.326,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c293.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.817,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No57c238.48$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c6…f362backed Yes61c235.91$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.121030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No66c230.05$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.243,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No72c223.05$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.531,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes39c216.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.381,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes51c210$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.11,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c200.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.523,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes59c198.87$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5245148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7c…f555backed Yes47c198.31$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.24526.7%12 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes13c162.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9845619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc769…0925backed Yes34c155.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.853938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes42c145.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6510732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No67c143.88$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.382458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c143.28$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.584,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes56c136.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.211938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes40c136.01$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.321,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes17c135.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.071,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No64c132.76$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.351,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes9c123.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6948331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No64c112.1$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8941070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1377…6aadbacked Yes54c108.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.54933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes36c107.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.749747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c104$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.573,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1623738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b69…42cfbacked No53c99.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No59c95.68$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.271,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes14c89.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0234219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes42c89.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No54c88.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3423673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes22c84.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.444235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed No64c82.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.685145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes19c80.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.738,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes38c75.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.862123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes35c75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c74.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.067,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c70.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c69.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes48c67.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8677…9724backed Yes57c67.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.285540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed1…adf1backed Yes46c67.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.221346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes43c67.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8231442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes42c62.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.151,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes32c60.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed No60c59.07$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.97939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ad…8db9backed No51c56.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.984344.2%19 W · 24 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c55.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x571c…307dbacked Yes44c53.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.611127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes50c53.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.632352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No48c51.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.641,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bd3…7656backed Yes31c50.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f44…c470backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57546.7%35 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No65c49.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.528160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes40c47.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No64c47.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0117633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes34c44.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes30c44.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0157232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes39c43.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8814632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes44c42.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6712233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No41c39.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0620150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a0…636abacked No47c38.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.382850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes44c38.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.829640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed No68c36.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.628149.4%40 W · 41 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Yes66c36.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.168861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd91…03cbbacked Yes39c33.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.141741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ecc…d023backed Yes56c32.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1610647.2%50 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No46c31.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0611925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0f00…8169backed No64c30.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.161338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No52c29.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.31,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes56c29.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1105…2775backed No65c29.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No56c28.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6315558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7bd…ccfcbacked Yes37c28.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes59c28.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5629770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No71c27.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9929653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No60c27.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.898366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes45c26.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.033023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes40c26.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes47c26.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.316950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No57c26.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2218761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No49c23.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1547442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No66c23.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9829558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No62c22.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6910154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3949…dffdbacked Yes45c22.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.274148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c22.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6209…e82fbacked No46c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.881827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No57c21.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.322,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6733…45febacked No70c21.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441090%9 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No58c21.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.081,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No52c21.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2476371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1f…e428backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109931.3%31 W · 68 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15b7…1929backed Yes55c19.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.