Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cf2f15bef5627719176df72e5ea8ee299173985c6e6709de64a9d8bf924bcfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 3c | 1,997$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.8 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 13c | 1,271$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 2c | 1,003$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 9c | 966.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 892$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 10c | 822.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.57 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 6c | 811.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 797.79$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 77c | 686.54$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.33 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 7c | 668.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 654.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.9 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 8c | 466.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.86 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 38c | 424.82$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.34 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 403.1$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 5c | 379.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.24 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 53c | 366.89$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 365.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.28 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 62c | 362.5$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 6c | 348.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.69 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 9c | 266.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.71 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 20c | 235.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 230.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 219$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 211.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.19 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 207.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 200.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 10c | 193.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 187.23$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 175.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 56c | 156.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 8c | 155.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.14 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 47c | 147.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 72c | 143.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 8c | 142.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 28c | 131.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 13c | 126.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 12c | 119.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 10c | 118.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 116.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 11c | 112.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 13c | 107.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 106.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 13c | 89.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 82.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…4a8ebacked Yes | 38c | 72.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 64.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes | 18c | 58.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 52c | 45.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 48c | 39.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 56c | 33.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 50c | 26.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…e897backed Yes | 61c | 20.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…2d56backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.