Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3205ca182df8289963acea91aece1d90a644cbba70101a90bf5963348a5abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 2,024$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,855$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,509$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 19c | 810$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 8c | 792.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 686.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 25c | 561.47$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 3c | 495.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 464.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 3c | 437.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 55c | 414.88$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.85 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 406.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 403.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 400.82$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 48c | 365.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.95 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 32c | 329.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 328.96$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 74c | 318.39$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 6c | 306.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 9c | 275.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 273.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 273.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 37c | 251.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 251.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 249.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 249.25$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 247.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 58c | 218.53$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 29c | 202.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 22c | 189.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 188.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 184.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 184.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 180.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 76c | 178.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c6…f362backed Yes | 39c | 169.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 160.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 29c | 159.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 146.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 139.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 9c | 138.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 132.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 126.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 123.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 40c | 117.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 116.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 46c | 115.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 110.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 110.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 26c | 107.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 47c | 101.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…6aadbacked Yes | 32c | 101.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 100.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 99.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 34c | 99.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 28c | 93.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 36c | 93.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 93.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 72c | 91.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 25c | 89.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 76c | 86.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 85.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 83.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 83.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 73c | 75.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 26c | 75.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd484…046fbacked Yes | 39c | 75.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 74.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 26c | 73.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 73c | 71.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 71.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 70.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 33c | 69.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 31c | 64.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…4a8ebacked Yes | 23c | 63.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 26c | 63.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 62.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes | 31c | 61.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 55.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 70c | 55.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 27c | 54.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 52.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 51.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 29c | 50.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 48c | 49.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 22c | 48.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 35c | 48.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 45c | 47.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.