TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sangal - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, Sangal
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeac2…dddcbacked Virtus.pro67c5,773$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.773729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Sangal32c3,679$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.972,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Virtus.pro55c2,186$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.1361834.6%214 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…300dbacked Sangal31c1,909$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.163246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Virtus.pro21c1,906$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.4965946.9%309 W · 350 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Sangal40c1,770$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.7555232.4%179 W · 373 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Sangal64c1,251$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.137565.3%49 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed Sangal42c1,197$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.530153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17fe…b0cabacked Sangal43c1,109$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.5915838%60 W · 98 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Sangal37c1,024$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.314940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…cd56backed Sangal1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011943.7%52 W · 67 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Virtus.pro58c972.85$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.62,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed Sangal26c863.97$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9934547.5%164 W · 181 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Sangal35c776.23$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.025,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7eb…eef7backed Virtus.pro37c744.39$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.033351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Sangal39c733.28$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.1536540%146 W · 219 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Sangal35c721.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7856239.5%222 W · 340 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed Virtus.pro56c703.88$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.0113342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed Virtus.pro52c698.84$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.2615846.8%74 W · 84 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Virtus.pro43c677.31$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.573,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Virtus.pro52c613.99$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.0215646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…4e8fbacked Virtus.pro17c580.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.531764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+60.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Sangal25c527.45$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8626345.2%119 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Virtus.pro60c492.87$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5533844.4%150 W · 188 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Sangal77c483.43$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.256756.7%38 W · 29 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Sangal75c466.67$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35029948.8%146 W · 153 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Sangal58c465.09$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.752,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Virtus.pro68c442$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.447850%39 W · 39 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235d…450bbacked Sangal33c420.94$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked Virtus.pro71c420$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.88441.7%35 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Virtus.pro65c393.59$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7512259%72 W · 50 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Sangal67c385.88$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3649952.3%261 W · 238 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1982…be15backed Virtus.pro57c369.9$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.263154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c79…ddf6backed Sangal55c361.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008664%55 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Virtus.pro50c357.86$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.492,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Virtus.pro74c350$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.949843%214 W · 284 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Virtus.pro44c347.11$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.493,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Virtus.pro53c328.86$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.973,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeadd…e3d7backed Virtus.pro34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1983246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2479…5becbacked Virtus.pro41c299.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.263256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe35b…b542backed Sangal32c295$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.43935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Virtus.pro54c285.7$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.515,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae5…72d2backed Virtus.pro66c271.01$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.420454.4%111 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Virtus.pro34c248$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.134934.7%17 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Sangal48c240.6$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.812,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8b6a…9fb9backed Virtus.pro74c240.25$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.352347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac4…1a34backed Virtus.pro57c228.72$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.351216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x499f…b72bbacked Virtus.pro30c225.48$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8914645.2%66 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Sangal35c222.87$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.92,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f15…7691backed Virtus.pro50c220$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1106546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Virtus.pro52c215.8$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.372,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Virtus.pro44c215.01$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3552850.6%267 W · 261 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Sangal40c205.74$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3432042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Sangal32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.331,26346.9%592 W · 671 L+18.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Virtus.pro40c188$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.311,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bed…5cd6backed Virtus.pro59c180.87$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.414151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Virtus.pro38c175.41$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.892,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro49c175.31$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.975,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Virtus.pro60c173$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.234750.1%174 W · 173 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Virtus.pro58c164.38$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.041,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Virtus.pro30c163.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.862448.2%301 W · 323 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed Virtus.pro17c156.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8912540%50 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd4…9bcdbacked Sangal75c155.95$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7215368.6%105 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Sangal32c154.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2187847.9%421 W · 457 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked Virtus.pro66c151.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.15757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed Virtus.pro34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.544344%195 W · 248 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Virtus.pro54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.753,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed Sangal47c148.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.554645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd2…0985backed Virtus.pro66c148.1$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.565151%26 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56e…1c76backed Virtus.pro34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.063754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x924d…6cb9backed Sangal41c145.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.714643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Virtus.pro54c143.61$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.811,63243.2%705 W · 927 L-32.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Virtus.pro67c141.86$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2812946.5%60 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Sangal59c140.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7226475%198 W · 66 L+24.2wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Sangal74c133.02$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4341960.9%255 W · 164 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sangal23c129$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.171,30526.4%345 W · 960 L-89.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc59…35f7backed Sangal40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506942%29 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Sangal49c122.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.721,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6183…4fa8backed Virtus.pro41c122.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.34825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Virtus.pro68c121$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1543175.9%327 W · 104 L+24.8wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Sangal42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5028637.8%108 W · 178 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Sangal41c108.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8320248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked Sangal46c108.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013332.3%43 W · 90 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed Sangal37c106.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.216647%31 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Virtus.pro43c101.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.324,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c0…c1fbbacked Virtus.pro47c101.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.038765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Virtus.pro63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.32,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed Sangal48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4828042.5%119 W · 161 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Virtus.pro67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.934,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc269…7841backed Virtus.pro40c99.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.626936.2%25 W · 44 L-10.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-28.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Virtus.pro66c99.29$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8637850.3%190 W · 188 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ad3…1af6backed Sangal43c92.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5807…74dcbacked Sangal47c89.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4214661.6%90 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Sangal39c85.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4139338.2%150 W · 243 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Virtus.pro26c83.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2543253%229 W · 203 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Virtus.pro48c79.21$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4216641%68 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Virtus.pro23c70.73$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3559044.9%265 W · 325 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed Sangal22c68.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.318038.8%31 W · 49 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Virtus.pro63c63.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3724260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Virtus.pro35c63$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.952,39346.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.