Middle East · resolved market
US strike on Iran on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb67429ec3fa81925de2049c54f912d9d2413cc1832031d91277e3e4d4b4ba570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,517$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d2…8731backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 10c | 2,248$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.9 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 1,886$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,780$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…2ab2backed Yes | 4c | 1,248$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 18c | 1,079$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 994.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 984$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 23c | 851.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 73c | 708.25$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.87 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 2c | 657.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 21c | 592$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 35c | 566.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 3c | 499.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 76c | 474.22$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…d34bbacked Yes | 45c | 441.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 5c | 388.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 4c | 370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 23c | 274.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5521…381abacked Yes | 8c | 260.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…bd47backed Yes | 27c | 250.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…00fcbacked No | 64c | 225$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…6425backed No | 76c | 222.95$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04df…642ebacked Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 78c | 199.78$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 51c | 190.23$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 24c | 169.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca80…316abacked No | 69c | 145.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…c5ebbacked Yes | 14c | 144.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 16c | 126.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 113.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…6d42backed Yes | 19c | 103.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…e9c1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…65cfbacked Yes | 27c | 87.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…5128backed Yes | 29c | 53.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68fd…ea31backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Yes | 47c | 42.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e97…28cabacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strike on Iran on June 24?this page
- US strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 28? No won
- US strike on Iran on June 22?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 23?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.