Middle East · resolved market
US strike on Iran on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e19cc55e14bf715832cd5842b824c06b0022026120e0c0c084056b77e3338e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 2c | 5,896$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 2,497$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,478$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,271$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,166$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,144$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 994.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 19c | 838.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…9030backed Yes | 7c | 708.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 68c | 547.57$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.57 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 452.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 22c | 451.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e9…6f8fbacked Yes | 16c | 427.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 14c | 212.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 204.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 21c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 78c | 35.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strike on Iran on June 30?this page
- US strike on Iran on June 24?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 28? No won
- US strike on Iran on June 22?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 23?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.