Middle East · resolved market
US strike on Iran on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf82b53e8701a4485ea7aac5084e4540ae56854a9f54ca43e665c2736ab385890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,902$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,511$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 2,155$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 79c | 2,027$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.36 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 40c | 2,010$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d2…8731backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 13c | 1,952$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.06 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,860$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,750$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.5 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Yes | 2c | 1,411$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,359$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 8c | 1,281$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 77c | 1,255$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.97 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 34c | 1,190$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 71c | 1,154$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.8 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…f70dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,009$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…6d42backed Yes | 21c | 1,005$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 68c | 992.61$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 10c | 823.06$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 25c | 598.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 24c | 468.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 18c | 437.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 404.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 38c | 387.12$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…d34bbacked Yes | 46c | 328.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 20c | 309.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 247.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 51c | 233.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…f360backed Yes | 45c | 224.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc6…b817backed No | 67c | 220$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…00fcbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 79c | 167.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…eae5backed Yes | 21c | 163.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 28c | 155.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…8fe0backed Yes | 12c | 129.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 16c | 122.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 11c | 116.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…0b91backed Yes | 35c | 115.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…b4dfbacked No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…e0c6backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…71dbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac3…de5fbacked Yes | 25c | 83.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…70d5backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8f…acd8backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…8422backed Yes | 35c | 69.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c9…5088backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe4…8cbfbacked Yes | 20c | 66.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Yes | 31c | 63.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…b966backed No | 73c | 60.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…9498backed No | 69c | 42.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…4638backed Yes | 31c | 39.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed Yes | 30c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e5…28fcbacked No | 73c | 28.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strike on Iran on June 23?this page
- US strike on Iran on June 24?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 28? No won
- US strike on Iran on June 22?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- US strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.