AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6b1aa0dbda5e19597ec9d03b226c53b75960aa050ee911a0ad161dd0325f81a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 6c | 3,056$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.17 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,206$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bb…f88abacked No | 60c | 729.03$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed Yes | 20c | 664.34$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 29c | 393.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…93f2backed Yes | 15c | 349.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…fba0backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…3efdbacked Yes | 40c | 249.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 247.6$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…423abacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 17c | 192.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…0b45backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 9c | 158.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 157$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 155.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…a0c0backed Yes | 40c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 25c | 132.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed Yes | 12c | 131.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 126.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 15c | 124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 13c | 114.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…fb0cbacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 80c | 61.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked Yes | 40c | 40.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…d719backed Yes | 40c | 40.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Yes | 40c | 27.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes | 40c | 27.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 1, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 10, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 11, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 17, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 2, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 27, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 5, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on or prior to June 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.