AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b92c7b6d2d5131dd8b4b1d770705c8e4a2d255a3bdaca4d676fa0e68372a50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 6c | 10,331$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.47 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 8,047$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,502$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 6c | 5,620$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.39 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 5c | 3,726$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,044$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 3c | 1,687$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…10f8backed Yes | 7c | 1,410$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,336$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…0a26backed Yes | 8c | 1,272$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 5c | 1,204$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…88e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,170$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…6868backed Yes | 4c | 1,102$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…93f2backed Yes | 13c | 959.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…77d6backed Yes | 3c | 883.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…ce83backed Yes | 3c | 881.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 6c | 847.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 3c | 805$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 767.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 739.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 4c | 661.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…4246backed Yes | 8c | 632.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456f…9430backed Yes | 4c | 613.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…251cbacked Yes | 8c | 612.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 8c | 576.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…cfa1backed Yes | 3c | 570$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 8c | 515.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…588abacked Yes | 12c | 509.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 3c | 491.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e50…f925backed Yes | 4c | 490.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 5c | 470.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 4c | 468.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…3a88backed Yes | 7c | 459.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 6c | 457.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…f4d5backed Yes | 7c | 456.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…a5edbacked Yes | 6c | 435.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 9c | 343.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…dff3backed Yes | 7c | 272.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 271.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 6c | 252.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…648abacked Yes | 8c | 252.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 251.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 230.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 8c | 217.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…7a82backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 9c | 154.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 139.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Yes | 8c | 136.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 15c | 134.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 15c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked Yes | 11c | 119.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 18c | 106.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd435…732ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…a414backed Yes | 39c | 28.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 1, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 10, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 11, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 17, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 2, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 27, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 5, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on or prior to June 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.