Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d8130af86950d1ead5ecd3ea1d3f9848c1bec59adaf556da23b7300dbec160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 41c | 1,150$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.44 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 61c | 592.95$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.41 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 55c | 423$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.01 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 43c | 416.37$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 45c | 368.26$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.37 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 349.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 55c | 269.57$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 267.27$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 231.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 222.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 10c | 215.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 44c | 204$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 196.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…1a80backed Yes | 5c | 182$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…4b1cbacked Yes | 40c | 171.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 152.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 124.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 122.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 103$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 101.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…db67backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 97.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 94.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 39c | 90.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…908bbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 36c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 44c | 64.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 61.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 38c | 57.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 33c | 54.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 59c | 46.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 40c | 40.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 45c | 40.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 36.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 34.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 56c | 33.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 56c | 31.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 27.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 62c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 57c | 18.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 17.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.