Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc64d12d0f7dd66d1ea2208d4102f096b7b363b4c03c9bcf57cc34991dc74ec29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 3c | 3,725$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.24 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…38a7backed No | 59c | 2,766$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 676.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 69c | 540.99$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.38 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 21c | 426$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.54 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 68c | 422.13$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.89 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 373.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 370.69$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 342.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 325.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 77c | 308.48$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.08 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 25c | 287.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.35 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 49c | 278.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.09 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 265.07$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 226.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 68c | 210.72$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 176.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 162.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 143.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 137.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 128.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 25c | 122.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 70c | 110.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 62c | 109.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 47c | 100.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 46c | 87.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 48c | 83.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 51c | 78.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 18c | 73.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 63.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 75c | 61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 60.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 33c | 60.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 51c | 59.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 59.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 19c | 53.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 52.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 50.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 47c | 50.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 48.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 43.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 47c | 42.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 42.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 73c | 41.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 80c | 31.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed Yes | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 48c | 29.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 27.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 25.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 69c | 24.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…5f93backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…67abbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184b…67b2backed Yes | 70c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.