NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6ef5a0dc77fea3f8d4410112dadb942ab5c3f002f9f16f7efaa73a7470531e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pistons | 47c | 33,103$15,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,579.27 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 54c | 15,289$8,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,209.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 54c | 12,461$6,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,704.11 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 55c | 3,861$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bulls | 54c | 1,600$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…512cbacked Bulls | 60c | 1,174$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 15c | 382.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 53c | 297.87$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls | 56c | 253.21$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Bulls | 47c | 197.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…21f2backed Bulls | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Bulls | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Bulls | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Bulls | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pistons | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Pistons | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Bulls | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…ac2dbacked Bulls | 61c | 50.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Pistons | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Pistons | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bulls | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5875…396bbacked Bulls | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)this page
- Bulls vs. PistonsPistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.