TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,283 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x865a…f1ecbacked Over49c2,349$1,151 inWon+$1,197.983354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under51c2,083$1,062 inLost-$1,061.649,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under50c1,319$659 inLost-$658.662,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under51c840$428 inLost-$428.41,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over48c623.99$300 inWon+$324.482,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under52c572.3$300 inLost-$30036943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fde…66b2backed Under51c507.84$259 inLost-$2595756.1%32 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over50c500$250 inWon+$25014040%56 W · 84 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c400$200 inWon+$20084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc597…4ee7backed Under72c281$201 inLost-$201.262045%9 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-37%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.081,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Under51c199.99$102 inLost-$1023732.4%12 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-39.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over28c196$55 inWon+$141.453,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3af…8ac9backed Over50c160$80 inWon+$802458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Over50c134.62$67 inWon+$67.313259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Over51c112$57 inWon+$55.2636148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over47c100$47 inWon+$535,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…8ee2backed Under52c100$52 inLost-$5220754.1%112 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over51c100$51 inWon+$4939449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1321…2286backed Under49c100$49 inLost-$494339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over30c75$23 inWon+$52.51,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd595…b30bbacked Under66c60$40 inLost-$39.64748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Over34c50$17 inWon+$3335352.4%185 W · 168 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Under51c39.22$20 inLost-$2020444.6%91 W · 113 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over50c22$11 inWon+$1166853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…b52cbacked Under50c20$10 inLost-$10837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.