NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bd1c35848ff2b4596f5d86c28122a601bd43080dbf8a52023b4e201377cf215
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pistons | 48c | 28,671$13,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,007.23 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Bulls | 52c | 14,077$7,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,320.01 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 52c | 7,819$4,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,068.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Pistons | 49c | 6,520$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,325.8 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bulls | 51c | 6,510$3,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320.1 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Bulls | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls | 60c | 2,964$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.45 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 58c | 2,222$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.61 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Pistons | 52c | 2,081$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.88 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Pistons | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bulls | 51c | 1,991$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.9 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 48c | 1,929$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.05 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Bulls | 59c | 1,356$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Bulls | 62c | 1,242$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 50c | 1,025$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…7a3bbacked Pistons | 52c | 780.04$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Pistons | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls | 48c | 617.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.68 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Pistons | 51c | 370$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.6 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 47c | 343.19$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Bulls | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…5b6fbacked Bulls | 50c | 279.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Bulls | 49c | 263.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bulls | 10c | 218.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…28cebacked Pistons | 52c | 217.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Bulls | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…a633backed Bulls | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Pistons | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…daa2backed Pistons | 51c | 195.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Pistons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…2b13backed Pistons | 51c | 158.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Bulls | 49c | 158.44$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…263bbacked Bulls | 50c | 158.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pistons | 47c | 146.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…cea0backed Bulls | 50c | 132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Pistons | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…f23dbacked Bulls | 50c | 103.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pistons | 43c | 102.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pistons | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…ff5abacked Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Bulls | 49c | 99.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Pistons | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Pistons | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bulls | 28c | 92.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pistons | 46c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…3864backed Bulls | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pistons | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bulls | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Pistons | 43c | 46.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Pistons | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…9bd5backed Pistons | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Bulls | 52c | 38.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Pistons | 51c | 30.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bulls | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Bulls | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pistons | 43c | 23.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd015…2480backed Bulls | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Bulls | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Bulls | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Bulls | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Bulls | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Bulls | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…8fb7backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…582bbacked Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…842abacked Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…c7cebacked Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…ab7abacked Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0142…3886backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…13b3backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…3c1fbacked Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…7d88backed Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3363…0429backed Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)this page
- Bulls vs. PistonsPistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.