NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6a4ae896294d3e7c8c45c9c9fba1762d1ba21afcacca2a26fda27a0a20d6773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Bulls | 59c | 5,880$3,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.2 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…3674backed Pistons | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Pistons | 37c | 1,700$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…db7dbacked Bulls | 63c | 1,700$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 63c | 803.83$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons | 37c | 500$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.55 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…fc91backed Pistons | 37c | 469.87$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pistons | 41c | 440$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pistons | 41c | 440$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 56c | 254.84$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.45 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Pistons | 42c | 168$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…8637backed Bulls | 58c | 161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Bulls | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 49c | 151.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Bulls | 71c | 110.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -15.6wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Bulls | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pistons | 38c | 88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Pistons | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 41c | 52.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Pistons | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Pistons | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- Bulls vs. PistonsPistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.