MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f49843f1a1aac5a172b7c43d9e5f671bbd53d303db5e8c6bf8c9499d1035c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,715$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 43c | 1,062$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.56 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Under | 45c | 893.63$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 59c | 260.39$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 42c | 95.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 28c | 87.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked Under | 40c | 74.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 67c | 57.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 60c | 57.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 46c | 54.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 46c | 49.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…6ddabacked Under | 73c | 45.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…4947backed Under | 73c | 41.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 72c | 37.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 63c | 34.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233c…6996backed Under | 73c | 29.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…fcf1backed Under | 73c | 28.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…ec74backed Under | 73c | 28.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x390e…4fb7backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…25a6backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 59cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…8ab8backed Under | 73c | 26.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…44c4backed Under | 73c | 25.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…c2f4backed Under | 73c | 25.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…e021backed Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e0cabacked Under | 73c | 24.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…3ee7backed Under | 73c | 23.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…24e5backed Under | 73c | 23.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…8b1cbacked Under | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Under | 73c | 22.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…c43bbacked Under | 73c | 22.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Under | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…1df3backed Under | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 69cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…e8fcbacked Under | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Under | 73c | 21.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d8…4861backed Under | 73c | 21.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed Under | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Under | 73c | 20.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…5e0abacked Under | 73c | 20.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…2dc5backed Under | 73c | 19.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb16e…cff4backed Under | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.53per pick | 69cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Under | 73c | 19.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 64c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Under | 73c | 18.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Under | 73c | 18.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa2…2b5dbacked Under | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…8921backed Under | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c213backed Under | 73c | 16.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…cfbcbacked Under | 73c | 16.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…fc9cbacked Under | 73c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…6977backed Under | 73c | 15.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…7451backed Under | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe485…da3fbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.