MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa65335e4d9234586330dfa014569f5e2e0c0c05fa886ef19f69b02fc8cf538de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 13,992$6,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,455.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 10,008$4,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,057.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Over | 42c | 7,143$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,142.86 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 52c | 6,346$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,046.15 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 6,131$3,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,564.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 3,857$3,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,051.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 49c | 2,361$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.51 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 2,060$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,314$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 1,081$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 1,012$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 906.78$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.25 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 16c | 792.09$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.87 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 721.6$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 705.04$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.31 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 679.77$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 576.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 449$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.75 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 51c | 414.23$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 52c | 409.58$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 375.04$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Over | 51c | 333$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f2…7f1abacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…598ebacked Under | 50c | 190.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 25c | 182.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.61 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 49c | 177.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 123.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…30f1backed Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f6…c181backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 115.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Over | 14c | 114.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 48c | 100.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 92.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 24c | 91.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 49c | 89.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 75c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 52c | 62.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 51.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 49.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 47.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 55c | 41.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 49c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 60c | 36.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 59c | 36.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 32.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 50c | 29.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 75c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 48c | 26.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 46c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 22.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…17aabacked Under | 45c | 22.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.