MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b27e3708df08c9b861fbdc2124f71f15d784ab7d0033c660844d25de8ed86e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 11,945$6,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,345.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 8,341$3,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,512.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 6,859$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,525.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 2,409$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 51c | 2,150$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.48 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 49c | 1,851$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.1 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 1,721$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 793.42$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 729.34$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 421.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 49c | 277.55$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 45c | 228.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 40c | 209.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Under | 66c | 181.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 47c | 132.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 117.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 67c | 105.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 100.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 76.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 48c | 72.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Under | 44c | 58.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 29c | 52.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 49c | 52.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 42.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Under | 50c | 40.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 48c | 28.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 49c | 26.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Over | 49c | 24.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 57c | 21.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…a302backed Under | 69c | 19.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.