Other European Leagues · resolved market
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb744638126a56dbb0003c0fe52ce50f1486fc09919fe1cc28d2590de7538eef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 77c | 8,680$6,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.13 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 7,030$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,246.96 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 42c | 5,353$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.48 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 3,510$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.83 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 31c | 3,099$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Under | 29c | 3,037$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 48c | 2,519$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.72 | 460 | 44.3%204 W · 256 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 2,135$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.04 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…82b9backed Over | 71c | 2,100$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 16c | 1,977$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.86 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Over | 29c | 1,893$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 37cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 31c | 1,779$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.91 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 54c | 1,562$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 57c | 1,264$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.3 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 1,204$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.4 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb418…ef38backed Over | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Over | 35c | 1,064$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11eb…50cbbacked Over | 73c | 900$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Over | 52c | 625.38$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 48c | 619.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.97 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 70c | 515.93$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.78 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…a939backed Over | 30c | 499.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 67c | 456$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 70c | 422$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 33c | 316$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.05 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 77c | 272.6$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Over | 76c | 268.67$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.19 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 70c | 217.6$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 45c | 216.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c6…1c5bbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 47c | 200.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.45 | 133 | 62.4%83 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 55c | 180.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 41c | 158.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…f00bbacked Over | 31c | 150.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 32c | 132.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 30c | 127.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -12.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 39c | 118.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 39c | 110.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 61c | 108.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 60c | 107.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 197 | 29.9%59 W · 138 L | -21.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…086dbacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 32c | 95.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 29c | 93.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 64c | 78.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 211 | 51.7%109 W · 102 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 73c | 55.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 76c | 52.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 33c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 338 | 53.3%180 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 35c | 45.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 68c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 322 | 57.8%186 W · 136 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 68c | 36.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 55c | 36.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…0f85backed Over | 70c | 35.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…665abacked Over | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 35.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 44c | 30.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 30.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 44c | 29.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…f6abbacked Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…f436backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 46c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 72c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 48c | 22.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…2e4cbacked Under | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5this page
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 1.5Under won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5Under won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Gençlerbirliği SK O/U 2.5Under won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Gençlerbirliği SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Gençlerbirliği SK won
- Spread: Gençlerbirliği SK (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.