WNBA · resolved market
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 164.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7621b552f6a186283ed365ed84a60514e4f17e38631b25db55cefc4b3739f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 5,905$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.41 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 4,180$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.18 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 1,152$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.93 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Under | 43c | 822.35$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.82 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 392$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | -19.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 303.4$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.7 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 169.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 44c | 136.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 68c | 115.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 389 | 40.9%159 W · 230 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 402 | 47.3%190 W · 212 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 47c | 95.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 51c | 81.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 56c | 71.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Over | 56c | 71.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 47c | 67.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 53c | 54.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…08f0backed Over | 52c | 54.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 48.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 46c | 44.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Under | 46c | 33.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 55c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 164.5this page
- Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Portland Fire won
- Washington Mystics vs. Portland FireWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 163.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 165.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.