WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c8f4427cc6dcc46c30699e6d39b52d1e7d797e68ecb8c1e0d814687dd7f866

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Washington Mysticsof Washington Mystics, Portland Fire
Resolved: Aug 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $78,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,861 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in WNBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6820…1c19backed Portland Fire	55c	50,908$27,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27,930.29	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Mystics	48c	22,396$10,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,715.95	269	53.2%143 W · 126 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Washington Mystics	45c	12,238$5,507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,730.9	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Washington Mystics	46c	8,693$3,964 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,729.19	386	50.3%194 W · 192 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Washington Mystics	52c	5,000$2,598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,401.82	103	38.8%40 W · 63 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Portland Fire	50c	4,327$2,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,150.16	1,765	51.7%912 W · 853 L	+53.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Portland Fire	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.98	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-7.7wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Washington Mystics	45c	2,287$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,257.58	53	60.4%32 W · 21 L	+6.2wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Mystics	51c	2,095$1,068 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,026.55	361	54%195 W · 166 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Mystics	45c	1,951$878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,073.27	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Washington Mystics	47c	1,796$838 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$958.65	411	45.7%188 W · 223 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb1…e05ebacked Washington Mystics	45c	1,031$464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$567.11	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Portland Fire	49c	1,014$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.78	922	48.8%450 W · 472 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Washington Mystics	46c	905$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490.44	286	47.9%137 W · 149 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Portland Fire	49c	847.36$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.21	130	48.5%63 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Portland Fire	48c	656.14$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313	285	58.6%167 W · 118 L	+20.0wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Portland Fire	49c	541.42$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.5	1,611	50.2%809 W · 802 L	+37.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Mystics	49c	477$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.27	552	55.1%304 W · 248 L	+25.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Portland Fire	51c	421.81$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.26	893	49.4%441 W · 452 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Washington Mystics	54c	371.85$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.85	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Portland Fire	50c	300$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.1	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd20c…5031backed Washington Mystics	45c	293.33$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.33	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Portland Fire	48c	276$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.48	307	34.2%105 W · 202 L	-28.2wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Washington Mystics	49c	239.92$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.06	270	49.6%134 W · 136 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Portland Fire	48c	228.85$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.85	837	48.1%403 W · 434 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Washington Mystics	51c	209.5$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.65	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7254…5594backed Washington Mystics	48c	206.79$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.53	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics	45c	199$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.45	325	40.3%131 W · 194 L	-17.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Portland Fire	55c	199$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.45	506	46.8%237 W · 269 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Mystics	45c	197.27$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.5	462	47%217 W · 245 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccc4…b44abacked Washington Mystics	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+53.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Washington Mystics	45c	155.56$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.56	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Washington Mystics	53c	150$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.5	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Portland Fire	48c	148.34$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	84	38.1%32 W · 52 L	-7.7wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Washington Mystics	51c	118$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.82	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Portland Fire	14c	114.28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	371	41.2%153 W · 218 L	-13.3wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Washington Mystics	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…30f5backed Washington Mystics	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Portland Fire	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Washington Mystics	45c	97.57$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.66	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe026…f409backed Washington Mystics	45c	89.71$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.13	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Washington Mystics	51c	88.02$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.83	344	48%165 W · 179 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Portland Fire	48c	88$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.24	132	56.1%74 W · 58 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Washington Mystics	45c	87.62$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.99	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Washington Mystics	51c	85.85$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.07	138	50.7%70 W · 68 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Washington Mystics	73c	82.63$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	229	67.7%155 W · 74 L	+11.5wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Portland Fire	47c	74.56$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.04	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Washington Mystics	48c	72.48$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.69	245	46.9%115 W · 130 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Portland Fire	50c	70.84$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.07	323	46.7%151 W · 172 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Washington Mystics	45c	69.67$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.32	329	48.6%160 W · 169 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Portland Fire	54c	68.39$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.93	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0af6…ffdbbacked Washington Mystics	45c	66.44$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.54	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+3.1wins	+0.39per pick	48cpaid	+82.7%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics	51c	60.25$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.72	995	48.1%479 W · 516 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Washington Mystics	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Portland Fire	49c	56.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.73	641	52%333 W · 308 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Washington Mystics	45c	54.72$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.1	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Washington Mystics	50c	54.22$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.33	615	47%289 W · 326 L	-19.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Portland Fire	51c	53.74$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.41	98	27.6%27 W · 71 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Portland Fire	48c	48.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	179	46.9%84 W · 95 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Portland Fire	51c	47.71$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	100	50%50 W · 50 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Washington Mystics	50c	47.69$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.85	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+30%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Washington Mystics	50c	47.12$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.56	126	61.1%77 W · 49 L	+11.8wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Washington Mystics	45c	45.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.84	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Portland Fire	50c	44.02$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	712	45.4%323 W · 389 L	-19.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa250…b806backed Washington Mystics	50c	42.28$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.14	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed Washington Mystics	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3637…21a4backed Washington Mystics	50c	41$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.5	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Portland Fire	50c	41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Washington Mystics	45c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+3.0wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c3e…8741backed Washington Mystics	65c	39.81$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Washington Mystics	45c	37.58$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.67	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Washington Mystics	51c	37.41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac6…14fdbacked Washington Mystics	48c	33.69$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.52	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.34per pick	41cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Portland Fire	49c	28.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01d6…92d6backed Washington Mystics	38c	27.19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.89	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e6…b490backed Washington Mystics	46c	27.13$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.65	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Washington Mystics	44c	26.09$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.66	131	38.9%51 W · 80 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Washington Mystics	48c	25.59$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.43	192	57.3%110 W · 82 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…0d2dbacked Portland Fire	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Washington Mystics	50c	23.85$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.93	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Washington Mystics	50c	23.85$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.93	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+3.7wins	+0.23per pick	58cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Portland Fire	50c	20.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	173	43.9%76 W · 97 L	-8.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)this page
Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)Washington Mystics won
Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Portland Fire won
Washington Mystics vs. Portland FireWashington Mystics won
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 163.5Over won
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 164.5Over won
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 165.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event