Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7cc34e4647e3004f45f22506ff610af207f85cdfcd170fbacaa2a3eede54ba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 20c | 1,189$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.92 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 957.85$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 847.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 596.14$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 555.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 543.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 500.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 42c | 359.33$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 318.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 312.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 12c | 296.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 21c | 292.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 291.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 9c | 286.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 16c | 263.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 13c | 263.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 261.15$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 244.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 237.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 229.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 10c | 221.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 209.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d4a6backed Yes | 25c | 201.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 199.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 199.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 185.75$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 8c | 184.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 167$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 165.08$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 164.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 155.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 34c | 145.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 17c | 141.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 135.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 17c | 131.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 119.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 111.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 111.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 108.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 21c | 104.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 26c | 103.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…5721backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 25c | 89.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 89.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 86.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 80.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 80.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 72.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 72.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 29c | 70.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…bc3ebacked No | 79c | 65.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 64.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes | 20c | 62.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 36c | 61.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 57.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 50.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 50.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 40c | 49.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 45.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 26c | 44.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…6d71backed No | 75c | 43.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 66c | 43.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 35.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 30.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…7163backed No | 62c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 25.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 77c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 80c | 20.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 80c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 79c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 13.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.