Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf437d4404712bf3bead4f3c64180b01c898257e6cebc49c827f673ec19750e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,372$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.09 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.11 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 55c | 1,066$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.27 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 820.77$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 11c | 775.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.72 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 736.39$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 726.03$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 615.72$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 11c | 545.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.16 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 63c | 505.63$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.74 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 18c | 434.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.3 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 428.53$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 391.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.37 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 16c | 299.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.06 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 283.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 12c | 281.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.47 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 281.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.95 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 8c | 254.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.66 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 16c | 235.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 13c | 231.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.86 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 229.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 69c | 221.81$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 212.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 65c | 206.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 22c | 203.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 28c | 198.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 196.6$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 172$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 159.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 146.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 145.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.61 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 138.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 138.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 14c | 132$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…a014backed No | 79c | 126.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 37c | 121.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 115.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 52c | 110.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 24c | 109.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 35c | 103.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 20c | 100.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 31c | 94.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 90.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…e03ebacked Yes | 20c | 87.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 80.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 76.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 73.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 72.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…8176backed No | 78c | 70.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 66.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 64.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 33c | 61.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 26c | 60.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…e0f0backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 58.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 54.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 26c | 50.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 42c | 47.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 44c | 46.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 45.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 42.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed Yes | 79c | 38.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 57c | 36.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 69c | 33.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 33.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 47c | 30.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…10efbacked Yes | 48c | 29.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 47c | 29.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed No | 41c | 24.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 61c | 22.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…c4b2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 68c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.