TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,433
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,433 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes27c2,050$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.224,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes4c1,300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5523429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes12c1,263$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.641,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes23c964.45$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No64c922.13$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.692,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes28c829.97$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.411,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf267…b0aebacked Yes2c749.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5999.1%9 W · 90 L+0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes34c703.64$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.714,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes5c570$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.974,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c558.81$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No68c499.95$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes19c499.09$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6523241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00eb…313cbacked Yes2c430.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.344219%8 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick11cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes33c414.44$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2112450.8%63 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No62c358.2$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3590040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c354.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c328.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes5c318.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.654,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No66c312.05$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.581,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes11c289.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.451679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes21c256.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0823129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c255.6$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.533,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes16c250.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.285,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes14c240.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.812,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c229.84$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.983,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c227$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.115,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes12c211.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.891,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes22c211.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.992,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed No79c204.02$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8312941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c200.79$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.854,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes30c167.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes32c154.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No75c151.63$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.459756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No67c149.26$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.811965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No68c148.44$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.441,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes21c143.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes33c140$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c132.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes33c131.02$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.694,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes15c129.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.678749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c129.41$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.574,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes36c120.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1118650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c119.12$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c101.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.815,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3623941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes17c99.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No70c93.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2639956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No69c93$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.584,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes23c92.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No69c86.96$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9628666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes17c82.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0148523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes24c81.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No78c79.86$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8472042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.653,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53129%9 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c67.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.141,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c66.1$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.516,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes21c65.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4318222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes31c60.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5515040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc443…7444backed Yes22c58.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.051233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes35c56.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010744.9%48 W · 59 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c56.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.033,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No76c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c53.61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.574,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes31c51.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9229948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No80c50.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.312,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe39f…a954backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed No67c49.71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4111950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c46.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.712,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No64c45.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.835137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No77c37.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.592,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…f288backed No68c36.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.983053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No69c36.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes36c35.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes34c34.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No72c33.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3820347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No68c32.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4413423.1%31 W · 103 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes37c32.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9930849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.547569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4920…2b87backed No79c29.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.153542.9%15 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63b0…4122backed No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.48561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No79c25.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3137669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7431564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaea…b0a1backed No70c21.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fd…e7dcbacked No68c21.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.912147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3f…bc25backed No62c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.984761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.082,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.455261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.88469%58 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No70c19.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8215369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.