Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f855f1ffe4f2c9d2739068f84e9fa26586d3fc2bb1d4ff0d73aa92d3d682598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,050$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 12c | 1,263$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 23c | 964.45$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 64c | 922.13$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 829.97$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.41 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 749.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 703.64$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 570$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 558.81$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 499.95$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 19c | 499.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 2c | 430.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 33c | 414.44$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.21 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 62c | 358.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 354.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 328.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 318.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 66c | 312.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 11c | 289.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 21c | 256.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 255.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 250.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 240.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 229.84$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 227$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 211.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 211.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 79c | 204.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 200.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 167.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 32c | 154.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 75c | 151.63$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 67c | 149.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 148.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 143.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 132.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 131.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 15c | 129.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 129.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 36c | 120.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 119.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 101.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 70c | 93.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 92.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 17c | 82.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked Yes | 24c | 81.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 78c | 79.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 67.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 66.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 21c | 65.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 31c | 60.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed Yes | 22c | 58.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 35c | 56.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 56.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 53.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 31c | 51.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 50.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…a954backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 67c | 49.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 46.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 45.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 37.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed No | 68c | 36.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 36.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 35.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 72c | 33.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 68c | 32.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 37c | 32.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 79c | 29.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…b0a1backed No | 70c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked No | 68c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.