Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4afbc1ec25a9e95b7571cdc36fc6b4d5e47465c31700c33a24772244bf74dc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 6,014$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.59 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 65c | 5,339$3,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.94 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 5,168$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 15c | 2,967$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.27 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,356$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.84 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 9c | 1,781$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,636$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.01 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 1,516$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.02 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 1,125$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.95 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 882.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 767.01$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 750.66$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 696.86$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8223…7cecbacked Yes | 13c | 605.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 567.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 540.32$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 533.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 4c | 527.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 18c | 506.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 76c | 503.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 500.01$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 38c | 475.72$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 65c | 461.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 31c | 420$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 407.14$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 14c | 404$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 365.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 17c | 359.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 326.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 315.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 304.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 17c | 292.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 33c | 289.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 69c | 258.72$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 255.67$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 14c | 251$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 18c | 240.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 237.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 237.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 27c | 224.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 212.92$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 59c | 212.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 32c | 178.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 16c | 171.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 171.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 159$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…d8c1backed No | 65c | 153.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 149.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 49c | 142.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 45c | 134.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 134.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 24c | 132.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 16c | 131.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 52c | 129.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 44c | 126$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 39c | 116.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ef…b607backed Yes | 27c | 113.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 110.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 108.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 75c | 103.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…cc6cbacked Yes | 14c | 102.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 67c | 96.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 15c | 95.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 39c | 92.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 91.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 87.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 71c | 86.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 22c | 81.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 80.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 67c | 78.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…17c9backed Yes | 65c | 76.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 75.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 73.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 32c | 71.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35bd…a351backed Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 68.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 68.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed No | 75c | 66.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 15c | 66.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 66.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 65.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f15…4cd2backed No | 78c | 64.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 63.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 61.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 61.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…e03ebacked Yes | 24c | 60.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…3633backed No | 68c | 60.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 59.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 68c | 57.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 26c | 56.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 68c | 55.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 24c | 55.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 24c | 55.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.