Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60aca01ce02c545bc8cd31ab3094e83e9f1a8b2532bd40d38d90fe3a4f9c6519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,396$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 859$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 502.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 468.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 6c | 393.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 368.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 344.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 317.19$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 283.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 11c | 266.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 5c | 240.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 12c | 240.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 10c | 235.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 230$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 229.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 22c | 213.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 6c | 213.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 67c | 149.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 136.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 134.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 111.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 107.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 105.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 100.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 84.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 78.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 19c | 67.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 24c | 53.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 38c | 50.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 24c | 47.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 76c | 38.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 36.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 31.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 30.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 24.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 78c | 21.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.