Fifa International · resolved market
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb82ea6a46c9c24258670943203fcb3506c25776f27e82a2b9de067d27a591f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x747a…d3b7backed Yes | 6c | 806.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 48c | 263$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…ff6cbacked Yes | 26c | 234.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e4…beedbacked Yes | 40c | 231$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…f218backed Yes | 6c | 176.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 154$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 66c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 73c | 90.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 25c | 79.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8f…266bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…7fd3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 40c | 62.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…4c18backed Yes | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 73c | 53.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…d2c9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…81c3backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…79a9backed No | 77c | 45.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…d771backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 38.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 65c | 30.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 71c | 23.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 67c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 72c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Belgium finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Egypt finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.