Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83de4fa252e318aec3762ace33df1f10131f59641fdaf8a7dc054d3f18c3a28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 31c | 987.59$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.56 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 193$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 21c | 158.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 125$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 119$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 98.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 53c | 95.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 51c | 93.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 28c | 93.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 84.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 75.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 38c | 73.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 67.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 64.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 38c | 64.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 63.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 66c | 60.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 54.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 49.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 70c | 39.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 31c | 35.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 72c | 32.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 61c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 21.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed No | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 51c | 19.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 72c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.