Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb857cfb53018dfd8ce338b31a7ba80521ebb8c96ef3327c04ff9afcac769306c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 347.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 264.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 256.05$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 252.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 197.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 26c | 185.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 46c | 182.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 43c | 182.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 159.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 145.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 121.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 19c | 120.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 50c | 112.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 103.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 57c | 94.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 93.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 70.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 70.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 26c | 62.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 62.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 60.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 53.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 55c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 27c | 49.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 44.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 32c | 44.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 43.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…9cd6backed No | 67c | 43.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 32c | 42.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 40.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 39.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 40c | 39.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed No | 78c | 38.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 35c | 38.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 41c | 37.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 62c | 35.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…f41cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 44c | 31.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 67c | 31.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked Yes | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 35c | 30.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 30.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 30.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 56c | 30.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 29.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 69c | 22.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 67c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 69c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 67c | 20.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 59c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 76c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 75c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 67c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.