Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8cdf513014cc35639dd361ea2daef773a972a35a5a25f1ab9476e065e818694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 638.29$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 56c | 549.19$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 80c | 373.21$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 340.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 49c | 323.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 44c | 305.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.4 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 32c | 295.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.71 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 46c | 290.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 56c | 267$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 263.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 43c | 233.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.04 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 202$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 62c | 196.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 189.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 19c | 171.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 40c | 159.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 28c | 133.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 128$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 126.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 68c | 126.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 28c | 123.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 120.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 114.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 47c | 114.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 10c | 112.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 10c | 109.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…4ce8backed Yes | 46c | 97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 29c | 96.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 90.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 29c | 85.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 39c | 74.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.21 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 70.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 41c | 70.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 69.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 62.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 54.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 48c | 52.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked Yes | 45c | 45.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 71c | 44.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 48c | 41.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 43c | 39.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 37.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 62c | 36.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 49c | 35.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 48c | 32.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 73c | 28.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes | 51c | 26.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 51c | 26.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 43c | 25.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…b420backed Yes | 54c | 23.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…f55bbacked Yes | 54c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed No | 54c | 21.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.