Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb0b49926b31b8bb9cf3202552c7aaef21515b9a99dccda3b4b5a1f7e573ac9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3e9…cae3backed Yes | 1c | 1,890$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,043$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 493.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 73c | 444.67$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 335.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 331.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 78c | 292.76$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 265.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 53c | 254.18$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 245.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.27 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 241.44$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 65c | 236.38$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 17c | 194.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 21c | 185.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 13c | 169.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 37c | 167.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 135.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 130.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 79c | 124.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 21c | 119.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 50c | 103.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 36c | 98.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 96.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 90.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 17c | 88.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 33c | 84.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 70.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 59.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…2f95backed Yes | 35c | 56.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 45c | 53.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 52.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 50.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 21c | 50.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 68c | 49.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 45c | 48.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 25c | 44.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 58c | 42.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 41.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 68c | 40.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…43dcbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 77c | 39.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 41c | 39.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…5837backed Yes | 80c | 36.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…1d21backed Yes | 32c | 36.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 54c | 34.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 46c | 34.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 69c | 33.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 74c | 33.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 53c | 31.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…99e6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed No | 58c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…55cabacked Yes | 48c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…c277backed Yes | 54c | 28.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 37c | 28.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fe…16e4backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 46c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 48c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 43c | 23.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 48c | 22.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 70c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…59f7backed Yes | 53c | 21.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed Yes | 50c | 20.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 55c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…1613backed No | 79c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 80c | 12.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.