Asian League · resolved market
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb86e812ba21ed3087dad849567781312ddfa2da4704db59b508efabb666feabf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 43c | 12,746$5,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,480.92 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked No | 57c | 4,993$2,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,146.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 57c | 4,608$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.52 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 43c | 4,186$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 43c | 4,186$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.98 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 3,302$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.79 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 61c | 3,124$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.27 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 57c | 3,060$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.57 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 34c | 2,214$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.62 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 57c | 2,113$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.24 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 57c | 1,449$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.58 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 57c | 924$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.32 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Yes | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed No | 63c | 400$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 57c | 334.98$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 57c | 328$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 58c | 296.59$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 44c | 254.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 57c | 228.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d29…65e7backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +6.4wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +88%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 174.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 57c | 170$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 68c | 150.97$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 136.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 33c | 132.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Yes | 14c | 118.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 43c | 114.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Yes | 46c | 104.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed No | 54c | 87.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed No | 59c | 85.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 37c | 81.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Yes | 43c | 65.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 58c | 61.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 45c | 61.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 45c | 61.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 60c | 48.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 54c | 46.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 67c | 42.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 31.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed No | 58c | 29.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 57c | 28.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 78c | 27.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 57c | 26.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 58c | 26.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 58c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…3566backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.