Tennis · resolved market

Mexican Open, Qualification: Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejia

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb881439f5910c1dcea8b8ccdbe1ea2f503199dc740465496af86ae10e4394e57

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ymerof Ymer, Mejia
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,328 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Mejia	56c	11,113$6,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,207.38	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mejia	4c	7,197$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.85	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Ymer	45c	5,667$2,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,116.98	1,410	38.4%542 W · 868 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mejia	32c	5,402$1,706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,706.29	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Ymer	47c	4,335$2,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,298.77	1,008	46%464 W · 544 L	-19.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Ymer	50c	4,047$2,028 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,019.33	990	44.8%444 W · 546 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Mejia	55c	3,714$2,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,046	813	49.1%399 W · 414 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mejia	49c	2,573$1,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,258.06	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Mejia	45c	2,542$1,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,153	1,118	42.8%479 W · 639 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf81…80cebacked Ymer	31c	2,248$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,548.3	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Ymer	47c	2,059$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,098.53	970	46.6%452 W · 518 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Ymer	56c	1,777$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$777.12	1,106	50.3%556 W · 550 L	-21.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ymer	75c	1,730$1,306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.17	4,426	51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L	+136.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Ymer	50c	1,250$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$627.5	87	62.1%54 W · 33 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Ymer	55c	1,005$554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.34	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Mejia	35c	984.74$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.77	265	35.5%94 W · 171 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Mejia	45c	961.48$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.27	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Mejia	45c	852.89$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.32	1,973	46.3%914 W · 1,059 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Ymer	48c	833.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.33	387	39.3%152 W · 235 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf4…ed22backed Mejia	44c	776.28$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.56	184	47.3%87 W · 97 L	+16.7wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ymer	45c	569.64$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.3	6,720	36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L	-95.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Mejia	46c	567.21$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.37	407	44%179 W · 228 L	-14.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Mejia	42c	474.59$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.33	4,076	39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L	+93.7wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Ymer	55c	413$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.93	692	49.6%343 W · 349 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Mejia	44c	413$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.72	200	43.5%87 W · 113 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Mejia	28c	360.93$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.06	680	26.2%178 W · 502 L	-24.5wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Mejia	25c	329.28$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.72	3,072	44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L	-30.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…90fbbacked Ymer	45c	306.67$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.67	207	58%120 W · 87 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Mejia	48c	304.16$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.7	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Mejia	46c	304$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.84	182	37.9%69 W · 113 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mejia	63c	301.68$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.95	6,599	50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L	+259.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf642…0c19backed Mejia	46c	292.62$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134	67	32.8%22 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Ymer	73c	275.34$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.34	419	55.8%234 W · 185 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Mejia	43c	242.21$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.54	381	33.9%129 W · 252 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Mejia	46c	239$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.05	1,028	33.6%345 W · 683 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0676…f0f0backed Ymer	57c	211.37$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.89	205	52.7%108 W · 97 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Mejia	43c	209.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.29	1,955	48%939 W · 1,016 L	+16.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Ymer	51c	205.36$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.94	2,537	53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L	+61.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7014…41eebacked Ymer	54c	204.5$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Ymer	29c	200$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142	1,026	46.8%480 W · 546 L	+14.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5562…3b41backed Ymer	56c	200$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.74	149	49.7%74 W · 75 L	-13.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb127…b8a2backed Ymer	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Ymer	29c	180$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.8	161	33.5%54 W · 107 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Ymer	53c	178.85$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.54	1,218	41.1%500 W · 718 L	-30.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0576…b90ebacked Ymer	57c	159.21$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.21	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Mejia	72c	138.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,107	43.5%481 W · 626 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Ymer	54c	132.91$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.14	2,145	54.2%1,162 W · 983 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…453dbacked Ymer	46c	130.92$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.92	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Mejia	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Mejia	46c	113.63$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.51	530	58.1%308 W · 222 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Mejia	59c	101.69$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	503	64.6%325 W · 178 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Mejia	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	3,901	50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L	-13.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Ymer	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.62	779	67.8%528 W · 251 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	69cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Ymer	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	259	50.2%130 W · 129 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Ymer	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	240	60.8%146 W · 94 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Mejia	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	310	39.4%122 W · 188 L	-10.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ymer	54c	85.48$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.51	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe320…e0c5backed Ymer	69c	80$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.8	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ymer	63c	78.16$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.87	884	55%486 W · 398 L	+37.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Ymer	52c	74.48$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.75	930	55.8%519 W · 411 L	+23.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mejia	39c	65.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.41	3,871	35%1,353 W · 2,518 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Mejia	42c	58.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Ymer	57c	52.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.63	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Mejia	48c	49.31$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.63	884	46.8%414 W · 470 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Ymer	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	437	49%214 W · 223 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f8…8cadbacked Ymer	57c	43.86$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Mejia	47c	40.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1,276	30.4%388 W · 888 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Mejia	44c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	857	48.2%413 W · 444 L	+33.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+13%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa519…2cc1backed Mejia	70c	35.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.07	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Ymer	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	940	60.6%570 W · 370 L	+11.3wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Mejia	37c	34.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb1d9…fc76backed Ymer	56c	30.36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Ymer	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	46	50%23 W · 23 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Mejia	45c	29.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	689	51.1%352 W · 337 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Mejia	48c	29$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	38cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Ymer	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	78	64.1%50 W · 28 L	-5.0wins	-0.06per pick	70cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4296…fca1backed Ymer	55c	28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.56	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74d…734cbacked Ymer	61c	27$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.53	284	62.3%177 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1213…5ed6backed Mejia	57c	24.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Mejia	47c	22.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	380	48.4%184 W · 196 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd2…f9f7backed Ymer	69c	21.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.61	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Ymer	53c	20.98$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.86	4,602	48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L	+34.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Ymer	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	164	68.9%113 W · 51 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Ymer	73c	16.17$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.43	619	53.3%330 W · 289 L	+18.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mexican Open, Qualification: Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejiathis page
Ymer vs. Mejia: Match O/U 23.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mexican Open, Qualification: Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejia

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event