Serie A · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b02833bb20ea582f32e5446a46a3627be18456a8935b7033f3c2f902d425e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53d5…64c7backed Yes | 0c | 8,034$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6b…25ffbacked Yes | 3c | 7,235$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…5577backed Yes | 16c | 5,208$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd74…0b8dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Yes | 2c | 4,287$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Yes | 14c | 3,834$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.76 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 16c | 3,482$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.42 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 14c | 2,860$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,042$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 14c | 1,959$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.21 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 7c | 1,650$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,228$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 15c | 1,100$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 790.14$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 11c | 409.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed Yes | 14c | 365$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 13c | 246.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 13c | 207.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1159…6228backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…1528backed Yes | 15c | 196.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 15c | 190.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…d702backed Yes | 16c | 179.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 14c | 170.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 15c | 165.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e93…2f9dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 16c | 127.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 14c | 124.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…0c03backed Yes | 16c | 119.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…b2ecbacked Yes | 17c | 116.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303e…96ffbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 90.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 262 | 41.2%108 W · 154 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…3b2fbacked Yes | 15c | 88.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…63c4backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 16c | 76.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed Yes | 15c | 66.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-04?this page
- Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?No won
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.