Serie A · resolved market
Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x610d81db2c247ae5f6e446567fc090958a8ed0e5a1284d17bb9903fffe7b3fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 1c | 6,699$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…64c7backed Yes | 2c | 3,110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…0f8fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,954$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…cbb1backed No | 78c | 2,458$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 2,238$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.31 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 77c | 1,694$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.41 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 77c | 1,494$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.11 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 77c | 959.99$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 20c | 884.48$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 815.29$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 4c | 753.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Yes | 23c | 714.78$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 704.43$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 76c | 565.22$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 542.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 78c | 376.92$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 20c | 346.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 10c | 291.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 246$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 243.74$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x903e…2829backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 211.8$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 418 | 54.8%229 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 16c | 205.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 23c | 204.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5c…d35cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 22c | 188.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3d…f1eabacked Yes | 23c | 128.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked Yes | 24c | 128.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 76c | 115.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…465dbacked Yes | 23c | 106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…9c8bbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…fcb3backed No | 78c | 100.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 77c | 76.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 65.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 22c | 65.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…a8b9backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 77c | 40.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 77c | 33.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…dc37backed No | 78c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 77c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked No | 78c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-04?No won
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.