South American Leagues · resolved market
CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d5d7a635c139dd5659b2a5f9589d84259346acdc67783e53d1f815492b4526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 67c | 9,723$6,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.55 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 5,785$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.53 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 2,291$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.5 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 2,201$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 79c | 2,104$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.56 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…d291backed Over | 66c | 1,550$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 45c | 783.02$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Over | 54c | 369.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd829…d60ebacked Over | 44c | 300.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 22c | 272.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.71 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 77c | 227$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Over | 77c | 222$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Over | 77c | 172$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Over | 77c | 147$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 65cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 77c | 145$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Over | 77c | 136$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…ad9abacked Under | 21c | 127.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Over | 77c | 126$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Over | 80c | 124$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 43c | 111.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 16c | 95.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Under | 23c | 91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Over | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 79c | 83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Under | 23c | 77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 41c | 65.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 57c | 61.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 79c | 61.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 79c | 59.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 59.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Under | 23c | 59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Under | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 27c | 55.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Under | 20c | 55.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Under | 23c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…ee1bbacked Over | 43c | 48.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Under | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Under | 60c | 47.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Under | 23c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Under | 23c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Under | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Under | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 38.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 78c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Over | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 53c | 34.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked Under | 55c | 33.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 78c | 32.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Over | 34c | 31.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Over | 80c | 28.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 46c | 28.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Over | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 80c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 57c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Over | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Over | 78c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…5a17backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.