South American Leagues · resolved market

CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeabda87bdb11be69b6f5691f98dcfe546f9bdbf3ad29d57d392b6c5c2d5a824

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,746 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Over	56c	3,962$2,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,238.3	2,388	51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over	30c	1,250$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.98	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed Under	43c	965.21$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550.17	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under	42c	914.07$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$529.05	636	44.7%284 W · 352 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	14c	910.19$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.99	5,757	45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L	+94.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Under	44c	909.09$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$509.09	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	44c	785.8$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.19	817	40.8%333 W · 484 L	+20.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under	58c	684.95$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.68	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	62c	657$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.66	494	49%242 W · 252 L	+22.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x320f…b4a3backed Over	54c	346$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.84	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	52cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	45c	223.05$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.67	266	59.8%159 W · 107 L	+12.0wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Under	43c	176.37$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.53	97	59.8%58 W · 39 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Over	54c	156$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.24	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f1c…0dd0backed Over	54c	156$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.24	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Over	54c	130$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Over	54c	121$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.34	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae28…5d17backed Over	54c	109$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.86	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf057…d05ebacked Over	42c	102.38$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed Over	54c	102$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	1,328	57%757 W · 571 L	+57.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Over	54c	91$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.14	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Over	54c	83$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.82	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.22per pick	59cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under	79c	80.8$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Over	54c	79$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.66	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	65cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Over	54c	72$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Over	54c	71$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.34	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Over	54c	66$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	-8.4wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over	30c	63.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	102	36.3%37 W · 65 L	-7.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over	24c	61.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6a69backed Under	46c	61$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.94	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	56cpaid	+41.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed Under	46c	60$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.18per pick	43cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	45c	60$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	2,611	54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Over	54c	56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	36c	55.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	2,170	43.7%948 W · 1,222 L	-53.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…f8afbacked Under	46c	55$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.7	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Over	54c	53.52$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	57cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe281…ad9abacked Under	45c	53.43$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.43	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+111.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Under	46c	52$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	58cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc94d…2b20backed Under	46c	48$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.92	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaa…80cdbacked Under	46c	44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…8c58backed Under	46c	44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06b1…614cbacked Under	46c	44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	57c	43.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.64	163	47.9%78 W · 85 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x711d…fe4bbacked Under	46c	43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over	33c	40.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	38cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Over	54c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-4.0wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	36c	39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	8,107	48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Under	46c	39$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+101.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Under	46c	39$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.06	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f53…1ddcbacked Under	46c	38$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.52	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Under	46c	38$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.52	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.21per pick	60cpaid	+48.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	134	41%55 W · 79 L	-14.6wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xabb7…7959backed Under	46c	37$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.98	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb780…e7a2backed Under	46c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf2…6640backed Under	46c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	59cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa029…c912backed Under	46c	36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	61cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed Under	46c	34$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4292…938dbacked Under	46c	34$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2614…1000backed Under	46c	34$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Under	46c	33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.82	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Under	46c	33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.82	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	42c	32.16$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.52	1,091	55.6%607 W · 484 L	-19.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…bbe8backed Under	46c	32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.28	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7c…1214backed Under	46c	31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.74	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.3wins	+0.33per pick	53cpaid	+59.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Under	46c	31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.74	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf340…6224backed Under	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.34per pick	41cpaid	+113.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…67b1backed Under	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd17…77fdbacked Under	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed Under	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf57a…a337backed Under	46c	29$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.66	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d49…c438backed Under	46c	29$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.66	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50be…bcb1backed Under	46c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73a3…dac6backed Under	46c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ed…53f7backed Under	46c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd411…e342backed Under	46c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked Under	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b1…cac1backed Under	46c	27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a14…8610backed Under	46c	26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	56cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7773…f936backed Under	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42bb…2138backed Under	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.25per pick	47cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc716…f0d7backed Over	58c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd512…91eebacked Under	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+80.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3b3…27babacked Under	46c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb75…bc16backed Under	46c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-3.5wins	-0.35per pick	55cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Under	71c	15.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.38	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1974…bc18backed Under	71c	15.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+60%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5this page
CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Under won
CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event