MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d61019ddf693e8ab5baf2af5b66b48c3180b91afaa3b927a5d684ca0ac50d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.29 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 521.94$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.63 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 47c | 399.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.32 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 55c | 344.18$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 343.12$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 238.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.27 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 223$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 205.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 41c | 197.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 59c | 197.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 172.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 48c | 120.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 36c | 111.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 105.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 102.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 93.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 59c | 92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Under | 60c | 72.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 60c | 71.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 58.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 55.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 47c | 52.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 57c | 39.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 58c | 38.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 47c | 28.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 20.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.