TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,805 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners38c1,060$398 inLost-$397.785,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c84…ac9abacked Baltimore Orioles62c426.27$264 inWon+$161.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles65c246.69$160 inWon+$86.349,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Baltimore Orioles63c239.06$150 inWon+$89.0543954.7%240 W · 199 L+30.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ea…66dbbacked Baltimore Orioles62c222.56$138 inWon+$84.57966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85a9…30bcbacked Baltimore Orioles63c119.7$75 inWon+$44.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Baltimore Orioles62c86$53 inWon+$32.6867453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners38c82$31 inLost-$31.12,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55af…8407backed Baltimore Orioles63c66.41$42 inWon+$24.572857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0967…164cbacked Baltimore Orioles63c63.92$40 inWon+$23.651136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Baltimore Orioles63c50$32 inWon+$18.52161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners38c47.85$18 inLost-$18.182,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Baltimore Orioles62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.267652.6%40 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbee…30b9backed Baltimore Orioles63c26.33$17 inWon+$9.747451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.