TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,562 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners60c1,860$1,125 inWon+$735.2512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners66c1,680$1,101 inWon+$578.514,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles33c1,308$429 inLost-$428.628,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles48c1,200$576 inLost-$5765,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles37c810.81$300 inLost-$30087750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners63c674$425 inWon+$249.1711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Baltimore Orioles33c383.6$126 inLost-$126.011,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles21c216.49$45 inLost-$45.462,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners47c210.85$100 inWon+$111.292,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Seattle Mariners26c200$51 inWon+$14930928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Baltimore Orioles38c160$61 inLost-$60.888053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles74c151.28$113 inLost-$112.648,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed Baltimore Orioles38c100$38 inLost-$3817446%80 W · 94 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles36c100$36 inLost-$365,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Baltimore Orioles38c82.15$31 inLost-$30.9872655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners65c53.85$35 inWon+$18.853,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles62c34.98$22 inLost-$21.825,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners61c21.6$13 inWon+$8.514,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Seattle Mariners63c20.44$13 inWon+$7.5928456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed Seattle Mariners78c20$16 inWon+$4.414753.1%78 W · 69 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Baltimore Orioles73c19.97$15 inLost-$14.5828943.3%125 W · 164 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.