MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6484f338e97e9535535038397f1aec7ad08efaf7ad0c99945adda6b6224a79f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 5,713$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 5,623$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.71 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Seattle Mariners | 1c | 2,145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Seattle Mariners | 1c | 2,145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 1,477$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.86 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 1,200$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 1,169$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.51 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Seattle Mariners | 2c | 886.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 583.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 21c | 350.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 340.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.32 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 318.2$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 284.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 217.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 196.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 194.34$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 147.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Seattle Mariners | 17c | 123.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 112$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Seattle Mariners | 20c | 101.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 89.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 86.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 77.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 68.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 73c | 63.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 61.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 56.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 54.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 44.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 42.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 34.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 31.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 30.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 25.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.