MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbe1f80e0b58daceb559dd5f75062852135f76d5922eabb94e1270a3e570bb6b

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,169

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,148 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb85…152fbacked Under	47c	21,088$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	165	48.5%80 W · 85 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	52c	16,133$8,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,673.73	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	54c	4,000$2,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,840	447	49.2%220 W · 227 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under	46c	2,867$1,319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,318.75	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	53c	2,134$1,131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,003.09	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	50c	1,508$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.09	680	53.2%362 W · 318 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Over	52c	1,165$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.55	175	46.9%82 W · 93 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under	49c	714.97$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.33	272	49.3%134 W · 138 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under	48c	607.55$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.62	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over	54c	600$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276	72	59.7%43 W · 29 L	+6.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	51c	516.86$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.88	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Over	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	53c	447.2$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.23	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Over	53c	428.45$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.37	473	50.7%240 W · 233 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Over	53c	428.45$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.37	215	50.2%108 W · 107 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under	47c	399.99$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	50c	364.61$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.63	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	586	52.7%309 W · 277 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	994	47.3%470 W · 524 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	67c	299.35$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.35	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed Under	51c	275.76$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	139	51.8%72 W · 67 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	55c	236$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.47	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	52c	233.75$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.03	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over	53c	226.41$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.41	945	49%463 W · 482 L	-38.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	46c	225.48$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.26	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	33c	219.32$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.12	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	47c	215$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.05	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over	54c	205$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.3	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over	53c	193.19$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.16	1,000	52.4%524 W · 476 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Under	56c	178.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under	40c	163.56$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.01	2,147	50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L	+27.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over	57c	141.09$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.77	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over	56c	138.56$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.26	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71cbbacked Under	47c	132.1$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.09	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under	49c	130.61$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	314	49.4%155 W · 159 L	-9.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under	48c	130$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	1,753	50.8%890 W · 863 L	+29.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed Over	60c	118$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.2	174	46%80 W · 94 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over	52c	113$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.79	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	449	49.2%221 W · 228 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3f…7320backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	48c	78.82$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.76	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over	53c	75$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.25	770	50.5%389 W · 381 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Under	51c	74.22$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.85	312	58%181 W · 131 L	+15.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	49c	73.53$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.03	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	62c	63.43$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.1	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	49c	48.01$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	49c	44.91$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Under	47c	42.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	705	46.8%330 W · 375 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bba…e4a7backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	68	50%34 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Under	54c	37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	192	52.6%101 W · 91 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a41…0123backed Over	56c	36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.02	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Over	51c	27.31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.38	95	53.7%51 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e3…7decbacked Under	49c	22.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over	51c	20.31$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.95	1,001	57.3%574 W · 427 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0469…5eb0backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	155	49.7%77 W · 78 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6a58backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	127	53.5%68 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e8d…aeedbacked Over	64c	18.13$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.48	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.24per pick	49cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event