TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,948 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd1f…9136backed No55c819$450 inLost-$45013850%69 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed No56c535.37$298 inLost-$298.1334650.9%176 W · 170 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes45c380$171 inWon+$2091,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes45c271.01$122 inWon+$148.898,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes44c232.89$102 inWon+$130.7688046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes45c205.71$92 inWon+$113.459,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes45c200$90 inWon+$1106,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes45c194$87 inWon+$106.71,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked No54c111.11$60 inLost-$604862.5%30 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed No56c35.71$20 inLost-$2025748.2%124 W · 133 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe465…7f38backed Yes50c30$15 inWon+$151060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa231…a91ebacked No57c28.94$17 inLost-$16.552147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes46c24.02$11 inWon+$12.971,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.