MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90f67f4ffbbb35a5aae19c76d1d21fa81433efa9affce162b1ec8ce47d6dc6f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 38,954$17,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,697.52 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 33,577$18,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,278.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 4,508$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 2,102$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.86 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 1,957$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.23 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 1,934$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 1,618$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 1,220$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.52 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 640.96$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 500.37$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 404.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 399.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.06 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 389.47$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 374$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 370.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 22c | 315.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 205.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 139$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 100.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 97.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 78.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 78.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 71.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 67.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 47.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 47.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 36.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 35.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 32.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…bdbebacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 21.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 20.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…e7b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…a3cabacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…7749backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…8148backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…525fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.