Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8efdc4da9f1dd17e2d5377f3d375dca1617847fd225284b39945c1a18ec3c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacksof Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, Idaho State Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 53c | 4,014$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.25 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Idaho State Bengals | 50c | 2,374$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.14 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Idaho State Bengals | 16c | 2,000$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.61 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Idaho State Bengals | 37c | 1,854$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.47 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho State Bengals | 42c | 1,584$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.98 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Idaho State Bengals | 3c | 1,536$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 241 | 21.2%51 W · 190 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +299%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 69c | 1,443$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.2 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 27c | 1,065$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.53 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Idaho State Bengals | 16c | 875.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Idaho State Bengals | 15c | 874.89$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals | 76c | 784.05$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.88 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Idaho State Bengals | 21c | 530$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Idaho State Bengals | 34c | 489.19$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.44 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 24c | 456$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.56 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 77c | 354.68$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 143 | 54.5%78 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 38c | 314.04$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Idaho State Bengals | 64c | 219.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 55c | 147.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Idaho State Bengals | 60c | 124.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Idaho State Bengals | 47c | 113.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Idaho State Bengals | 9c | 111.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 51c | 110.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Idaho State Bengals | 73c | 100.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Idaho State Bengals | 68c | 87.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 49c | 85.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e07…b908backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 39c | 62.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 24c | 49.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Idaho State Bengals | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Idaho State Bengals | 30c | 37.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 233 | 31.3%73 W · 160 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Idaho State Bengals | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Idaho State Bengals | 70c | 24.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 52c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…e466backed Idaho State Bengals | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengalsthis page
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho State Bengals: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: Idaho State Bengals (-7.5)Northern Arizona Lumberjacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.