La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9038f8f6ad55cab2134bda5e651e581193483e9f61125657ce918d7d43f34fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b7…48d4backed Over | 25c | 2,400$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 1,206$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.93 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,202$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.57 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 75c | 450$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 754 | 51.2%386 W · 368 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 418.49$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.54 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 26c | 366.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 75c | 328.5$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 24c | 268.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 171 | 28.1%48 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 17c | 175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 136 | 68.4%93 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 25c | 104.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 79c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 24c | 79.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…9ac5backed Under | 76c | 69.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 66.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 26c | 65.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 47.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 170 | 61.2%104 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…8f45backed Under | 80c | 21.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00d…9817backed Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 77c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Valencia CF won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5)Athletic Club won
- Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.