Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92f1d42617ba7702ca0ee25c97495db22474a2685bf99d85ddf0a4aa2790c01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 42c | 752.42$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.1 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 37c | 505.94$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…87ffbacked Yes | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 63c | 499.85$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.22 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 53c | 464.34$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.49 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 66c | 451$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.07 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 38c | 450.38$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.4 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 63c | 421.11$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 25c | 310.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked No | 77c | 297.93$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 239.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 56c | 188.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 188.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 59c | 173.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 60c | 166.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 165.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 127.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 116.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 34c | 100.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 95.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 79.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 28c | 73.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 68.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 26c | 61.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 29c | 58.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 56.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 51c | 54.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 46.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 28c | 46.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 42.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 37c | 39.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 32c | 39.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 35.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 33.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked No | 35c | 31.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e70…c53ebacked No | 42c | 23.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked Yes | 55c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 70c | 21.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 59c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…6fabbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 62c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.