Movies · resolved market
Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9af317bd4d1ba24fb3672b72ae987144ff69cdef61a0822c74c2e371d7f4f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 28c | 2,438$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.42 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 2,068$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.09 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.41 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 643.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 73c | 529.01$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 478.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 10c | 434.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 329$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 318$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 251.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 23c | 218.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed Yes | 12c | 199.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 76c | 169.45$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 156.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358c…4d45backed Yes | 18c | 155.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 75c | 137.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 17c | 113.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 17c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 16c | 83.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…dcc9backed Yes | 38c | 53.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 32c | 52.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…5324backed Yes | 27c | 39.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 65?this page
- Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 55?No won
- Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 55 and 60?No won
- Will "The Amateur" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 65?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.