NFL · resolved market
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the NFC North?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba15eb296ce5e11a52d9439a3836f5a65e70118447f3576687caa43c0216d748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,421$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 13c | 2,108$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed Yes | 20c | 1,733$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.62 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,658$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 20c | 1,475$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 20c | 1,012$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.67 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 3c | 626.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 2c | 602$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 79c | 568.31$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 23c | 419$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…b33dbacked Yes | 4c | 410$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…ffd5backed Yes | 5c | 374.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 20c | 307$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 224$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 145 | 32.4%47 W · 98 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 21c | 217.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…abccbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 25c | 179.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 80c | 135.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad0…16d0backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd720…9be9backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…81bcbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…7576backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…fff9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…dfe0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Minnesota Vikings win the NFC North?this page
- Will the Chicago Bears win the NFC North?Yes won
- Will the Detroit Lions win the NFC North?No won
- Will the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.