Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba3a70a96f0b8a654d8dffa4add8efaeb52b360722fb8799943da6d4bf28e784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 1,648$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 2c | 962.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 917.55$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 504.74$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 43c | 477.5$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.47 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 348$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 316.29$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 5c | 284.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 260.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 259.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 79c | 254.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 5c | 246.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 8c | 240.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.59 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 203.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 196.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 6c | 194.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.66 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 187.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked No | 78c | 158.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 47c | 156.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 49c | 144.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 75c | 133.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 116.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.24 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 73c | 105.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 99.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 76.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 67.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…8819backed No | 74c | 67.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 76c | 66.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 63.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 20c | 59.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked No | 54c | 46.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 24c | 44.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 44.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…348cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.